Forisk Forecast Scorecard: 2012 versus Actuals

27 03 2013

This is the fourth in a series related to Forisk’s 2013 forecast of softwood stumpage prices in the United States.

How did Forisk’s Forecast perform in 2012?  For pine stumpage prices in the U.S. South, the Forisk Forecast was within 2% regionally across all products.  Analyses of eleven state-by-state forecasts relative to Timber Mart-South shows that Forisk was, on average, $0.21 per ton lower than the actual pine sawtimber prices and $0.33 per ton higher than the actual pine chip-n-saw prices.  For pine pulpwood, Forisk’s estimates for eleven state-level prices for 2012 had, on average, $0.00 per ton difference from the actuals, with seven states realizing slightly higher prices than forecasted by Forisk and four states realizing lower prices than forecasted by Forisk.

20130327 Forisk Forecast Scorecard

For delivered softwood prices in the Pacific Northwest relative to those reported by Wood Resources International and the Oregon Department of Forestry, the Forisk Forecast was within 1% for three out of four state-product forecasts for 2012, and within 2% for the fourth state-product. Across categories in Oregon and Washington, Forisk underestimated the actuals for 2012 by, on average, $4.41 per MBF or 0.8%.

To learn more about the 2013 Forisk Forecast or Forisk’s market-specific stumpage forecasts tailored to individual wood-using facilities or timberland ownerships, contact Brooks Mendell at bmendell@forisk.com, 770.725.8447. 

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